Articles
8 long-form texts · also in Polish
The Code of the Woods: how the Russian state issues football hooligans a licence for violence, and takes it back
The Russian state does not allow an organised group capable of violence to have agency of its own, whether the group is football hooligans, “Española” or Wagner…
The next wave would have to happen before its own trigger, or not at all.Claim · the call-up register and the exit bansEastern Direction · 22.08.2026The exodus that would have to outrun mobilisation
In September 2022, in the run-up to the largest emigration event in Russia’s recent history, searches for the phrase “will there be mobilisation” sat at background level. Through June, July and August…
The state did not design this cage — it is decorating the inside.Claim · 173.9 million trips in 2025Understanding Russia · 24.07.2026A country as a substitute resort
After 2022 Russia had to learn to take its holidays at home. Not out of curiosity. Out of necessity. Sanctions, the war, closed skies, harder access to Europe. In the statistics that compulsion turned into a boom…
Law was everything except a system of norms.Claim · the XIV SPBILF, St PetersburgUnderstanding Russia · 29.06.2026The St Petersburg Legal Forum as an ideology factory
In June 2026 the West was watching the St Petersburg Economic Forum, with its signals about investment, sanctions and the war. An event no less important for forecasting was taking place in the same city almost unnoticed…
A habit is harder to abolish than a belief — it needs no defending, only repeating.Claim · the unemotional majorityUnderstanding Russia · 16.06.2026Everywhere and nowhere: collective avoidance
Russian support for the war has a peculiar feature: it is surrounded by silence. The fourth year of the full-scale invasion has brought neither mass enthusiasm nor mass opposition — it has brought a third thing…
Our own are safe for as long as they are convenient.Claim · the resettlement programme for compatriotsUnderstanding Russia · 13.06.2026"We don't abandon our own": the story of the Old Believer returnees
“We don’t abandon our own.” That sentence has been painted on the sides of Russian tanks since 2022. It is the justification of the war in three words — the doctrine of a state that explains an invasion as care for its own people…
Russian migration after 2022 is for Armenia a rescue and a risk at once.Claim · 5–7% of GDP from high-techEastern Direction · 03.06.2026Armenia: the vote that will change the lives of people with no vote
On Sunday Armenia will be voting not only for parties but for a direction: a deeper anchoring in the European Union and Western security structures, or an attempt to hold a “balance” with Russia…
A dispute is possible only where somebody earlier declined to yield.Claim · administration instead of colonialismEastern Direction · 28.05.2026Who has the right to say "colonialism"?
On paper it was a modest academic council attached to the Russian Military Historical Society: experts from Russia and Kyrgyzstan were to agree on joint history textbooks. In practice the meeting ended on a single word…