Analiza Wschodu

Denis Salnikov · Russia and Eastern Europe

Four sessions for teams with a specific problem.

Decisions of the Russian state reach a company through specific channels: an employee’s passport, a counterparty’s transfer, access to a system, the status of an asset. I show how those channels are built — from decrees, registers and ministerial orders — and what follows for your people and your money.

The session runs in the group’s language

fluent in speech and writing — Polish, Russian, Ukrainian, English

Under NDA

nothing from a session reaches my texts, my talks or social media

Preparation

a survey, or interviews across the participants, before the agenda

What remains

from a decision note to a report, slides and automations that keep running

Sessions

Four problems I have the material for

Every session stands on acts and on documented cases. I fit the format after a conversation.

HR · mobility · board

What your HR department does not know about staff from the East

Two layers. The hard one: whose passport will stop working and what happens then, who will suddenly not travel, what extraterritorial repression means for an employee’s family abroad, how to read a sudden request for unpaid leave. The soft one: who these people are and which phase of adaptation they are in — described as a process, never as a national character.

One of the acts
Федеральный закон № 127-ФЗ от 14.04.2023«О внесении изменений в отдельные законодательные акты Российской Федерации» — единый реестр воинского учёта и реестр повесток
Format90 min or half a day · PL · RU · EN
Board · risk · business continuity

What disappears first: the transfer, the access, the person

War reaches a company in a fixed order: first the transfers stop going out, then access and licences lapse, and last the people leave. What of that can be anticipated and prepared for, what the state does not compensate after a hybrid incident, and at which address the bill finally lands. On documented cases of Western companies in Russia, Ukrainian ones under fire and Polish ones exposed to the side effects — and on what I saw myself from inside an engineering team in the spring of 2022.

One of the acts
Росавиация · информационное сообщение от 24.02.2022«Вниманию авиапассажиров: о мерах, предпринимаемых для организации перевозок пассажиров в/из аэропортов юга России»
Format90 min · PL · EN
CTO · VP Engineering · People in tech

The digital cage — the state and its own technology sector

Deferment from conscription and the loans granted under decree 83 — and separately, on a different legal basis, the deferment from mobilisation, which is the one that works as an instrument for holding people in place. What that means for the retention of the team you relocated, and for the people who stayed. Behind it, the architecture of control over the network — because that is what sets what your team can and cannot do from where it sits.

One of the acts
Указ № 83 от 02.03.2022«О мерах по обеспечению ускоренного развития отрасли информационных технологий в Российской Федерации»
Format60 / 90 min · PL · EN · RU
Fraud · AML · security

How post-Soviet fraud infrastructure is actually organised

The corporate form and where it comes from, the division of roles, recruitment, the register of language the caller uses. What the “Russian call centre” narrative gets wrong, and why the flag means little in this industry. No attribution and no technique — the structure and the context that a report on a campaign does not carry. The state’s own list of what it had to ban in 2025 is the most precise inventory of this industry’s tools that exists in Russian law: somebody else’s SIM card, a foreign messenger, an unmarked call, a cash withdrawal at an ATM.

One of the acts
Федеральный закон № 41-ФЗ от 01.04.2025«О создании государственной информационной системы противодействия правонарушениям, совершаемым с использованием информационных и коммуникационных технологий, и о внесении изменений в отдельные законодательные акты Российской Федерации»
Format90 min · PL · EN
Tool

The stack of control over the network

This is not a wall but five layers — each of them raises the cost of exit. Control has moved from the cable to the pocket. Click a layer to see what it is built from and what it touches in a company that has people or money there.

How it works

Before I walk into the room

01Preparation

A conversation with whoever is commissioning the session, a short survey or two or three interviews across the participants. The agenda comes out of what those produce — an off-the-shelf session is cheaper to prepare and worse in its effects.

02The session

90 minutes or half a day, in the group’s language, on site or remote. Every thread starts from a document and ends on a specific person, or a specific line in your budget.

03What remains

We agree the scope before the session: from a two-page note to a report, slides for internal use, or a working automation that tracks the subject after I leave. Always with a list of sources to read on your own.

ConfidentialityI work under NDA as standard. Nothing from a session — not the cases, not the names, not the company’s situation — reaches my texts, my talks or social media.
PricingI give it after a conversation, once the format, the number of people and whether a preparation phase is needed are clear. Travel and accommodation are always separate from the fee.
Limits of competence

What I do not do

  • I am not a lawyer. Sanctions compliance, contracts and disputes are a law firm’s work — I describe the context, I do not give a legal opinion
  • I do not screen counterparties or individuals. Due diligence and verification belong to business-intelligence and investigative firms
  • I do not advise on entering a market or exiting an asset. I can show how it is arranged. A transaction decision carries legal and financial weight, not analytical weight
  • I do not forecast the course of the war, when it will end, or the rouble rate
  • I do not do attribution of cyberattacks or analysis of APT groups

Asked such a question I will point to someone better placed and go back to what I can document. A company that buys a forecast buys guesswork in good packaging.

Organisational advisory and process design I run under a separate brand — Agile Expat. Here I work only on Russia and Eastern Europe.

Contact ds@analizawschodu.pl

I will tell you whether it is something I can help with. If not — I will say who is worth asking.

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